[discount_rates_problem] [outcomes]

Until I have found out how to generate interactive charts in HTML5 (a project for 2020), I shall continue using Adobe Flash. This is well understood to be inaccessible to most users of Apple devices and to many users of Windows devices. Please bear with me while I learn HTML5!

Using the random numbers generated, the model is run in Excel and the final results exported and saved in Excel. The 3 charts show “fund development”, “success likelihood” and “discount rate adjustments”. Each chart has two colour-coded parameter columns on the right and the yellow bar is defined as “red” minus “blue”.

The statistic of interest can be mean, standard deviation, highest 5.0% or lowest 5.0%. Even though they won't have been generated from the same scenario sets, I think it is still reasonable to compare the highest 5.0% for one measure with the highest 5.0% for a different measure. For 10,000 scenarios, were I still looking at 0.5% confidence limits, the “lowest 50” may be taken as equivalent to Solvency II.