ThreeBearsBalancedWithText_2020
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outcomes
[discount_rates_problem] [outcomes]

Until I have found out how to generate interactive charts in HTML5 (a project for 2020), I shall continue using Adobe Flash. This is well understood to be inaccessible to most users of Apple devices and to many users of Windows devices. Please bear with me!

Using the random numbers generated, the model is run in Excel and the final results exported and saved in Excel. The 3 charts show “fund development”, “success likelihood” and “discount rate adjustments”. Each chart has two colour-coded parameter columns on the right and the yellow bar is defined as “red” minus “blue”.

The statistic of interest can be mean, standard deviation, highest 5.0% or lowest 5.0%. Even though they probably won't have been generated from the same scenario sets, I think it is still reasonable to compare the highest 5.0% for one measure with the highest 5.0% for a different measure. For 10,000 scenarios, were I still looking at 0.5% confidence limits, the “lowest 50” may be taken as equivalent to Solvency II.