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success_likelihood
[discount_rates_problem] [outcomes] [success_likelihood]

At the top, there are 3 pairs of radio buttons, namely:

a)  experience (2014 or 2018a);
b)  number of random scenarios considered (10,000 or 2,000);
c)  expected return multiple of yield.

On the right, there are 4 pairs of radio buttons on the right, in the following order:

1.  contract (annuity or endowment);
2.  benefits inflation-protected (“Y” or “N”);
3.  approach (“mark-to-market” or “off-market”);
4.  assets portfolio.
 
How often will the assets at the end of the contract be sufficient? Three situations are considered, namely not enough (“Lo”), “acceptable” defined as upto 1,000 deflated too much (“OK”) or far too much (“Hi”).

If we reduce the acceptable margin, then that will increase the “Hi” region. For a fully inflation-protected endowment fully invested in conventional bonds, the MtM approach would have led to utter failure in 44.8% of 10,000 scenarios and to assets which are far too high in 48.6% of 10,000 scenarios. Only 6.6% of 10,000 scenarios would have been “acceptable” (see chart).