ThreeBearsBalancedWithText_03Oct2023_Third
ContactDiscRateEnd2019ContactDiscRateEnd2019
SiteMapDiscRateEnd2019SiteMapDiscRateEnd2019
fund_development
[discount_rates_problem] [outcomes] [fund_development]

Extracted figures for capital and income contracts are shown in tabular form. Typically, but not always, the “baseline” fund tends to run away beyond the desired outcome (see chart). That implies that the initial discount rate was too low for budgeting purposes which is our target. Simplicity is harder than it looks (formally known as the “Dolly Parton lemma”). The return multiples were based upon actual experience and seem reasonable to me but they are not that significant.