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fund_development
[discount_rates_problem] [outcomes] [fund_development]

At the top, there are 3 pairs of radio buttons, namely:
a)  experience (2014 or 2018a);
b)  number of random scenarios considered (10,000 or 2,000);
c)  expected return multiple of yield.
 
On the right, there are 6 pairs of radio buttons on the right, in the following order:
1.  contract (annuity or endowment);
2.  benefits inflation-protected (“Y” or “N”);
3.  approach (“mark-to-market” or “off-market”);
4.  stage (“baseline” or “adjusted”);
           >  “adjusted” reflects spot-on discount rate (back-solved);
5.  statistic of interest (mean, standard deviation, highest 5.0% and lowest 5.0%);
6.  assets portfolio.
 
It will be seen from the chart that the “baseline” fund tends to run away beyond the desired outcome. That implies that the initial discount rate was too low for budgeting purposes which is our target. Simplicity is harder than it looks (formally known as the "Dolly Parton lemma"). The return multiples were based upon actual experience and seem reasonable to me but they are not that significant.