[discount_rates_problem] [outcomes] [required_adjustments]

At the top, there are 3 pairs of radio buttons, namely:

a)  experience (2014 or 2018a);
b)  number of random scenarios considered (10,000 or 2,000);
c)  expected return multiple of yield.
On the right, there are 4 pairs of radio buttons on the right, in the following order:

1.  contract (annuity or endowment);
2.  benefits inflation-protected (“Y” or “N”);
3.  assets portfolio
4.  statistic of interest (mean, standard deviation, highest 5.0% and lowest 5.0%).
At the end of the contract term, our precise financial objective is either zero (for the annuity) or 10,000 real/nominal (for the endowment). To achieve that result, by how much must we adjust the initial pricing discount rate?

For a fully inflation-protected endowment fully invested in conventional bonds, the MtM approach would have required an adjustment of 0.51% pa, whereas the Off approach would have required an adjustment of 0.08% pa (see chart). I am not suggesting that mark-to-market is always worse than off-market but it mostly is; see a few extracted figures.