During 2019, I presented to 7 different actuarial audiences, the most recent being to SIAS on 03 December 2019 (read alone PPT here). As I was focused upon updating the sums and the conclusions drawn, this website is being updated to reflect financial statistics until the end of 2018, many months later than originally intended. Hopefully, updating until the end of 2019 will be faster.
Jon 20 January 2020
After less than a month, I have updated the website in order to allow for an extended “long-term” section (with a new “risk premium” chart) and to refine the long-term return estimates; there will be more.
Jon 22 August 2018
This website was originally launched in July 2015. Since then, I have used a newer, wider (and narrower) dataset plus some of my personal DWP DB Green Paper submission in May 2017. Although I had actually updated this site on 11 July 2018, I have since realised that there are newer ONS MQ5 numbers (used below in “funding_nightmare”).
Jon 22 July 2018