ThreeBearsBalancedWithText_2020
ContactDiscRateEnd2019
SiteMapDiscRateEnd2019
risk_approaches
[discount_rates_problem] [scalars_inappropriate] [risk_approaches]

Risk quantification is very poorly captured by scalars and there is no evidence that financial economics is useful for long-term estimates. For the last 20 years or so, there has been a huge concentration on risk without reward recognition. As far back as 1952, Redington wrote that avoiding losses is the same as avoiding profits. More recently (2018), Maurice Ewing said that risks are only taken because of potential rewards, which is entirely logical. Further, prudence can only be identified once one has derived and explained a best estimate. The UK long-term DB funding regime needs wholesale reform.