ThreeBearsBalancedWithText_2020
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fund_development
[discount_rates_problem] [outcomes] [fund_development]

On the chart, to the right, there are 8 pairs of radio buttons, namely experience, contract, inflation, marginMV, approach, stage, assets and statistic considered.

It will be seen from the chart that the “baseline” fund tends to run away beyond the desired outcome. That implies that the initial discount rate was too low for budgeting purposes which is our target. Simplicity is harder than it looks (formally known as the “Dolly Parton lemma”). The return multiples were based upon actual experience and seem reasonable to me but small variations are not that significant.